2023年德州2021十大正规彩票app市场将如何形成

How can you prepare for the rest of 2023 when the last few years have been so unpredictable?

The Texas Real Estate 研究 Center released the 2023 Texas Economic Forecast in December. 研究ers made educated guesses by using their understanding of economic and market conditions and past market trends, 报告说.

Lead Data Analyst Joshua Roberson recently shared what he’s watching this year and how it could impact buyers, 卖家, 和十大网络彩票平台大全.

通货膨胀将继续

通胀将是2023年值得关注的指标. Inflation rose rapidly last year, and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates. Making it more expensive to borrow money cools off inflation but also decreases buying power.

The 研究 Center predicts inflation will likely stay elevated this year. 即使美联储控制住了通货膨胀, 我们可能不会立即或完全感受到影响.

全球事件也会影响通胀. “一个国家发生的事情会蔓延到美国.S. 市场，”他说. “If China shuts down because of COVID-19 or the oil markets are in flux because of the war in Ukraine, 美联储能做的只有这么多.”

Inflation impacts Texas real estate because higher interest rates push buyers out of the market. 合格的买家可能会推迟购买，直到利率下降. Texas is somewhat protected from these consequences because of the steady stream of new residents, 罗伯森说. As a result, Texas is in a better position to bounce back compared with other states.

预计价格将温和上涨

Texas home prices and rents could not keep growing like they did during the pandemic, 研究中心表示. “我是这么看的, back in 2019 we were having conversations about declining housing affordability. Then COVID-19 threw everything into a whole other gear,” according to Roberson.

Prices partly rose because of low mortgage interest rates in 2019-2021. 当利率从2%跳升时，买家失去了40%的购买力.从2021年1月的65%降至去年秋天的7%左右. 2023年2月，30年期抵押贷款利率为6%.12%. That feels high compared to recent years but 6%-7% is closer to historical norms, 罗伯森说.

“COVID-19 was a special period of time with interest rates being as low as they were,” 罗伯森说. “People had a lot of money they couldn’t spend on anything else but their homes. 我们以为我们会待在家里的时间比现在多得多. 我们无法维持这些数字. For Austin to experience 30% to 40% year-over-year price growth, that was unique. 情况趋于平稳.”

The 研究 Center predicts moderate home price and rent growth in 2023. 2019年11月的房价中位数约为25万美元. 去年6月是34.9万美元. It’s down to $333,000 now but Roberson doesn’t see a return to the $250,000 range. Any fall in prices definitely won’t come close to the nosediving levels of the 2007-2009 Great Recession. 德州住房供应紧张，需求依然强劲.

销售将放缓

Higher mortgage rates and higher asking prices will slow sales even as price growth moderates, 研究中心预测. “2022 had fewer sales than the previous year, but sales still exceeded 2019,” 罗伯森说. “即使销量下降，销量仍然很好. 只是与2021年相比，一切都会看起来令人失望.”

Roberson watches days on market and months of inventory, which are both slowly increasing. Texas continues to have limited inventory at the lower price points, even with new homes being built. 2021十大正规彩票app市场总体上仍然供应不足. 他还会观察挂牌销售价格的比较.

我们正在走向衰退吗?

One of the biggest questions for the 研究 Center was whether the economy is headed into recession, 罗伯森说.

如果出现轻微衰退，就业和2021十大正规彩票app增长将趋于平缓. “More than likely, that’s the best-case scenario for this year,” he says. 如果经济衰退更为严重或持续, 实际工资和购买力将会下降. 经济将收紧，房屋销售将继续下滑.

How consumers feel about the economy can be as important as the actual numbers themselves, 罗伯森说. Pessimistic attitudes influence purchasing decisions, like houses, which end up in the data. “通胀是一大痛点，”他表示. “这让其他一切都黯然失色. 虽然有所改善，但还是比较高. 人们会有这种感觉，尤其是在买食物的时候.”